William Wilson - Thesis Committee

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Developing a Model to Value Germplasm Using Real Options
(North Dakota State University, 2013) Simonson-Paschke, Marit
With many varieties of germplasm being developed, it is imperative to the industry that firms decide on a valuation method. This need to include looking at traits of the germplasm, the risk and uncertainty of expected returns associated with a varieties' development and release. The purpose of this thesis is to determine the option value of developing germplasm using the real options approach. The value gained of the variety will be measured and used as a decision factor in the determining the value of the germplasm at different development phases. This approach helps managers decide the best possible option in making a certain decision today, or in the future. Two possible options to "continue" or "wait" are modeled in this thesis. Such modeling determines the possible option values of germplasm at different stages of development depending on changes in value and various choices made at different points in time.