Environmental and Conservation Sciences Program, College of Graduate and Interdisciplinary Studies
Abstract
This study offers an insight on pertinent parameters that may be considered to address potential emerald ash borer {EAB), Agrilus p/anipennis, infestation. The study utilizes a geospatial model, calibrated using empirical data from Ohio, to model risk of EAB introduction to North Dakota. A spectral library of native trees was also developed to aid in rapid identification of ash tree locations. In light of this imminent threat to North Dakota, a concerted effort to inventory and provide deterministic or stochastic models is critical for providing likelihood scenarios to a consortium of affiliated forest health partners. The premier goal is to mobilize first-responders to alleviate, mitigate or quarantine an affected area and develop plans to minimize the economic impact of an EAB infestation. A cohort study of an existing EAB infestation in Ohio was used to calculate relative risks for proximity to three categories of human infrastructure and ash trees themselves. The relative risks were then used to identify areas in North Dakota that would most be at risk. The results of the risk model show large areas in the eastern part of North Dakota and large swaths of land that have native forest cover, for example, Turtle and Killdeer Mountains, would be most prone to EAB.