Seed sourcing for restoration often uses local populations presumed adapted to local environments. This may not be effective under changing climates. Thus, different seed sourcing strategies need testing including multi-source regional collections and their ability to persist in response to change. We compared first-year emergence for single and multi-source seed mixes on plant community diversity following restoration at two locations. There was no discernable effect of seed mix treatment on community establishment. However, land-use history likely has influenced early diversity. Following this, we evaluated which climate variables influence distributions across 26 grassland species’ ranges. We produced contemporary species distribution models and evaluated how predicted habitat suitability changed in response to predicted carbon emission scenarios. The climate variables that influenced habitat suitability varied by species with predicted species- and functional-group specific responses to predicted change. These results may aid seed sourcing decisions and identifying regions to implement restorations in the future.