Forecasting the Effects of Autonomous Vehicles on Land Use

Abstract

The widespread availability of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) will likely affect social change in terms of how people travel. Traditional methods of travel demand and land use modeling require vast amounts of data that could be expensive to obtain. Such models use complex software that requires trained professionals to configure and hours to run a single scenario. Alternative closed form models that can quickly assess trends in potential CAV impact on the regional demand for shopping, entertainment, or dining land use does not exist. This research developed a closed-form model that considers the potential mode shift towards CAVs, possible changes in the propensity to travel, shopping trip avoidance from e-commerce, and greater accessibility for non-drivers. Model parameter estimation based on statistics from the greater Toronto area found that population growth from 2017 to 2050 alone could increase the demand for shopping, entertainment, or dining land use by nearly 60%. However, CAVs could double or triple that demand—implicating dynamic planning and environmental considerations.