A Stochastic Simulation of the North Dakota Ethanol Production Incentive

Abstract

The objective of this research is to determine the effect the North Dakota Ethanol Production Incentive has on ethanol plant survivability. This thesis uses a stochastic simulation to show the financial performance of an ethanol plant with and without subsidy support. Historical corn and ethanol prices are used to simulate market conditions a typical ethanol might face. Using the forecast prices, an ethanol plant balance sheet was created to show how a plant would perform in normal market conditions, as well as how the plant would perform with the Ethanol Production Incentive and also with alternative subsidy structures that were developed. The results showed the Ethanol Production Incentive was the most effective subsidy tested and it does appear to improve plant balance sheets to a certain extent during a downturn.