A Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Model to Rank Factors Influencing Public Transit Mode Choice: A Case Study

Abstract

This study applied a decision-based model with uncertainty to identify factors in mode choice and to rank their influence in attracting riders to available public transit modes in the city of Tehran. The model integrates a fuzzy Delphi method and a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with fuzzy set theory to process opinion uncertainties. The surveys found that from highest to lowest in influence, the service attribute rankings were safety, reliability, frequency, comfort, travel cost, information provision, and accessibility. Based on these attributes, subway ranked highest in passenger attraction potential, followed by ride-hailing, bus rapid transit, vans and taxis, then public bus services. These findings support the hypothesis that it is worthwhile for big cities to ramp investments in public transit improvements even as ride hailing services proliferate with the potential to attract users away from more throughput-efficient and lower-cost services.