Forecasting Batter Performance using Statcast Data in Major League Baseball

Abstract

2015 saw the release of the Statcast camera system within Major League Baseball ballparks, which provided statisticians with new data to analyze. One statistic, average exit velocity, is of particular interest. We would like to see if a batter’s average exit velocity can significantly explain the variation in his slugging percentage and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) when taken into account with other, more traditional baseball statistics. These two statistics are of particular interest within advanced baseball data analysis. We found that a player’s average exit velocity can significantly explain the variation in both his slugging percentage and his BABIP. We also discovered that the significance is stronger in explaining slugging percentage than in explaining BABIP.