Development of a Prediction Model for the NCAA Division-I Football Championship Subdivision

Abstract

This thesis investigates which in-game team statistics are most significant in determining the outcome in a NCAA Division-I Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) game. The data was analyzed using logistic and ordinary least squares regression techniques to create models that explained the outcome of the past games. The models were then used to predict games where the actual in-game statistics were unknown. A random sample of games from the 2012 NCAA Division-I Football Championship Subdivision regular season was used to test the accuracy of the models when used to predict future games. Various techniques were used to estimate the in-game statistics in the models for each individual team in order to predict future games. The most accurate technique consisted of using three game medians with respect to total yards gained by the teams in consideration. This technique correctly predicted 78.85% of the games in the sample data set when used with the logistic regression model.