A Multivariate Approach to Forecasting Dairy Imports

Abstract

The global economy is becoming more connected with every passing year. Developing countries continue to lift themselves out of poverty and their markets are hungry for the opportunity to trade goods with nations all over the world. This is true in dairy markets, and it is a good time for domestic producers to set their sights on international markets. Domestic companies want to have a tool they can use to determine where the demand is not only strong today but will remain strong in the future. In this paper a model is developed to forecast demand in China, the world’s top dairy importing nation. The accuracy of the model is checked. While forecasts will never be completely accurate the multivariate approach used in this paper shows promise for the helpfulness of such models to firms looking to evaluate foreign markets.