Linear Modeling of Election Results for U.S. House of Representatives Candidates and State Executive Offices for Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota

Abstract

Better understanding the relationship between the results for the U.S. House of Representatives and for state executive offices could potentially be useful in predicting outcomes if a significant relationship is present and if one has more information about either the election for the U.S. House of Representatives candidate or the state executive office candidate. To better understand this relationship, election results were analyzed using regression models for three upper Midwest states - Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota - to compare the outcomes of the state executive office elections and the U.S. House of Representative elections. Additionally, median income was included in the models to see if this affected the relationship. Each state had a statistically significant relationship between the results of the state executive offices and the U.S. House of Representatives. Median income either was not statistically significant or not practically significant in overall effect on the relationship.