Conceptual Cost Estimation of Highway Bid Items Using Geostatistical Interpolation

Abstract

Challenges associated with ensuring the accuracy and reliability of cost estimation of highway bid items, especially during the conceptual phase of a project, are of significant interest to state highway agencies. Even with the existing research undertaken on the subject, the problem of inaccurate estimation of highway bid items still exists. A systematic literature review was performed to determine research trends, identify, categorize the factors influencing highway unit prices, and assess the performance of conceptual cost prediction models. This research proposes a geographic information system (GIS)–based methodology that leverages vast historical bid data for unit-price estimation and the robust GIS capabilities with consideration of the effects of project-specific location and variations due to cost escalation on different bid items. A comparison of the three spatial interpolation techniques operationalized in this research revealed that disjunctive and empirical Bayesian kriging models led to more accurate cost prediction than ordinary kriging algorithms.