Compensation for the Effectiveness of Risk Mitigation Strategies for Fusarium Head Blight(FHB) and Deoxynivalenol(DON)

Abstract

Food safety related problems are one of the biggest challenges worldwide. DON is produced by Fusarium species which causes the well-known Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) of wheat and barley. FHB outbreaks have led to variability in yield and revenue losses over the years. The main objective of my thesis was to quantify risk premiums at the farm level and with industry impact, to determine the effectiveness of FHB/DON mitigation strategies over time from 1997 to 2014. Data on revenue losses ($million) were obtained from USDA-ERS and was simulated using a risk analysis software called @RISK 7.5. The sample data was simulated 10,000 times to obtain a population. Risk premiums were calculated for each year and for each crop over time and graphs were plotted. Trends in risk premiums showed an overall decrease from 1997 to 2014, indicating that variability of losses have reduced and that the management practices have been effective.