Emergency Management

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Research from the Department of Emergency Management. The department website may be found at https://www.ndsu.edu/emgt/

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Browsing Emergency Management by Author "Hyde, James Tupper"

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    Avoiding the Windshield Wiper Effect: A Survey of Operational Meteorologists on the Uncertainty in Hurricane Track Forecasts and Communication
    (North Dakota State University, 2017) Hyde, James Tupper
    The first line of defense for the threat of an oncoming hurricane are meteorologists. From their guidance, warnings are drafted and evacuation plans are made ready. This study explores uncertainty that operational meteorologists encounter with hurricane prediction, and more importantly, how meteorologists translate the uncertainty for the public. The study is based on a web survey of individual meteorologists, in cooperation with the National Weather Association (NWA). The survey received 254 responses with an estimated 18% response rate. Specifically, the study focuses on three key areas: displaying uncertainty in hurricane track forecasts, perceived relationships between the public and the media and message characteristics on various platforms (e.g., television, web, and social media), and reliance on numerical weather prediction in the forecasting process. Results show that tracking graphics are varied between their use and usefulness and meteorologists think that they have a bigger role in information dissemination than previously thought.