Agribusiness & Applied Economics Masters Theses

Permanent URI for this collectionhdl:10365/32434

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 134

Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Toxic Air Pollutants in Trucking Efficiency and Productivity
(North Dakota State University, 2011) Heng, Yen
Air pollution is a threat to the environment and human health. Freight trucking in particular is the main source of freight transportation emissions. Heavy-duty trucks emit large amounts of toxic air pollutants that cause serious diseases and harm public health. In addition, heavy-duty trucks emit great amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG), which is the leading cause of global warming. Despite increased environmental restrictions on air pollution and rising trucking greenhouse gas emissions in the past decades, no economic study has examined the potential GHG and air pollution reductions in the trucking sector and the associated private abatement costs to the industry. This study accounts for GHG emissions and toxic air pollutants in measuring and evaluating efficiency and productivity for the trucking industry in the 48 contiguous states. Moreover, the private costs of abatement to the industry were also estimated. When only GHG was incorporated in the production model, the results showed that each state could expand desirable output and reduce GHG by an average of 11 percent per year between 2000 and 2007. The Malmquist-Luenberger productivity indexes showed that omitting or ignoring GHG in trucking service production yielded biased estimates. On the other hand, due to increased environmental regulations, most of the toxic air pollutants decreased dramatically between 2002 and 2005. The analytical results showed that inefficiency decreased during this period. The private costs of abatement averaged $73 million per state in 2005. When GHG and six toxic air pollutants were incorporated in the production model, the estimated private abatement cost was $76 million per state, which was equivalent to 0.7 percent of the industry output in 2005.
Adolescent Food Consumption in Urban China: Factors Influencing BMI and School Meals
(North Dakota State University, 2013) Anfinson, Carl Allen
China’s food consumption patterns are changing as the population becomes wealthier and more urban. As the country ages, today’s adolescents will be tomorrow’s consumers. Few studies have focused on this important demographic. This study intended to investigate what might be influencing adolescent BMI by examining what adolescents are eating at home and away from home along with socioeconomic factors. An increase in a mother’s education was found to have a positive influence on BMI. Another section focuses on what adolescents consume at school compared to at home and also examines their parent’s perception of these school meals by developing an ordered logit model. Compared to preschool, the likelihood of a parent being satisfied with all aspects of a school meal decreased for higher levels of the student’s education. Almost three times as many lunch meals were consumed at school, proving how important this often forgotten meal is.
An Analysis of Emergent Behavior in the North Dakota Water Depot-Based Water Allocation System using a Decentralized Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) Approach
(North Dakota State University, 2016) Borders, Michael Tyler
Water demand has increased exponentially since 2007 in western North Dakota. This increase can largely be traced to the advancement of technology in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) which has led to one of the largest oil booms in the country. Along with the recent oil boom, water depots have expanded and played a significant role in providing water for fracking. Using decentralized agent-based modeling (ABM) to model water allocation among water depots, a scenario analysis obtains results for four scenarios. Policy suggestions, based on the scenario analysis, include allowing greater access to LSMR water sources and restricting SW and GW use for the oil industry to reduce water scarcity in the Bakken. These results support allowing greater access to LSMR water sources for the oil industry as desired by the North Dakota State Water Commission (SWC), and other elected officials in the past decade.
An Analysis of Financial Risk Measures within Agricultural Cooperatives
(North Dakota State University, 2017) Schweiss, Kristi
Agricultural Cooperatives have been facing times of low financial risk in the previous years. However, this is expected to change in the near future and controlling for financial risk will become an increasing concern. A review of the risk balancing hypothesis literature shows that financial risk has not been fully defined by previous researchers. The objective of this research is to better define financial risk and analyze whether the academic literature or the lending industry has found ways to capture and measure financial risk. This is done by utilizing a stochastic simulation model of an agricultural cooperative comparing low and high financial risk scenarios. The results of the simulations are analyzed using coefficients of variations and the contributions to variations for selected ratios. The results show that the ratios used by the lending industry have larger contributions to the variation than those used in the academic literature. This suggests that future research should work to more specifically define the sources of financial risk and identify measures for these risks.
Applying SERF Analysis to Rank Procurement Strategies for a North Dakota Green Field Pea Processor
(North Dakota State University, 2014) Sanderson, Bryant
There are many crops grown in North Dakota, but only a few have a futures market for prices and are grown readily throughout the country. The specialty crops in North Dakota display many of the same characteristics such as a lack of a futures market, high standards for grain quality, and concentrated production areas. These characteristics create unique procurement risks for specialty crop processors. This project ranks procurement strategies for a green field pea processor located in North Dakota using stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) analysis. Through SERF analysis, it was found that geographic diversification and forward contracting are useful tactics to include in a green field pea processors procurement strategies. The methodology and model can be applied to other specialty crops in North Dakota that display similar risk characteristics seen in green field peas such as lentils, dry edible beans, and malt barley.
Bankruptcy Model Application to Missouri River Water Allocation
(North Dakota State University, 2019) Manaweera Wickramage, Heshani Anjalie Manaweera
Growing demand for water and improper resource management over the years have led conflicts among states and countries. This research applies cooperative game theory. The bankruptcy model, where claims for resources exceed their total availability, was applied to Missouri River water allocation during dry years. In this study, five allocation rules were applied. These include Proportional, Constrained Equal Award, Sequential Sharing Rules based Proportional, Mianabadi’s methodology, and a proposed Modified Constrained Equal Award rule in allocating Missouri River water among two agents where their primary purposes were managing the reservoir water level and navigation channel. Selection of the best allocation rule depends on the beneficiaries, and there is no exact method to choose the best. However, this study reveals that the best approaches are proposed Modified Constrained Equal Award and Proportional rules to allocate water among the agents in the Missouri River for dry years.
Bidding Competition and Supply Chain Risk in Soybean Exports
(North Dakota State University, 2018) Bisbee, Seth Charles
Commodity trading at both domestic and international levels involves many sources of supply chain risk and uncertainty. Risk management techniques are utilized by industry participants; however, there are unknown risks that can arise throughout the supply chain making effective risk management a difficult task. This study aims to address supply chain risk in soybean exports. A framework is created for a competitive bidding environment in which firms participate in an international import tender. Monte Carlo simulation is used to represent stochastic variables and derive an optimal bid under various scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is then conducted to measure the impact of key input variables on the output values. An alternative specification for risk management is also implemented into the framework. This study provides insight into supply chain uncertainty and incorporates that into a competitive bidding framework for optimal bid derivation and effective risk management.
Business Risk, Financial Risk, and Liquidity Management on U.S. Farms - Evidence From Selected States
(North Dakota State University, 2021) Allahverdiyev, Emin
Risk management is pivotal to agribusiness decision-making, and researchers have developed various models to disentangle factors underlying farmers’ risk decisions. This thesis argues that an appropriate model should consider farmers’ leverage decisions altogether with liquidity decisions given that liquidity is another major constraint facing farm businesses. We incorporate current ratio into the classical risk balancing model. Our theoretical derivations generate two propositions: (1) an increase in business risk will cause current assets to increase, and (2) an increase in the expected return to assets will cause current assets to decrease. Using five income categories and three panel data models, regression results provide evidence supportive of the first proposition, but contradictory to the second proposition. We concluded that contradictory results for the second proposition may stem from a poor proxy variable for the expected return to assets. Besides, we tested the traditional risk balancing hypothesis and found evidence for risk balancing.
Charitable Donations
(North Dakota State University, 2017) Udalamaththa Gamage, Danindu Ariyathilake
Attracting donors to a charity and retaining continuous donations is one of the major concerns of a charity, because this largely affect the capacity of the charity to continue on their cause or to expand their cause. As the market for charitable donations have a large number of donors and charities, the way charities brand themselves is very crucial to receive donations. This work looks to question whether a charity can increase its donations by branding itself close to the ideal perception of a charity in the donor. The question was approached using a two-staged lease square regression model that shows that the congruence between ideal charity perception and the real charity brand is in fact plays a significant role in increasing charitable contributions by donors.
China’s Urban Household Food Consumption, Nutrition and Health
(North Dakota State University, 2017) Wang, Yan
The effect of family structure on household nutrition intake and the effect of wine, beer, and spirits consumption on household nutrition and health are examined. To evaluate nutrition intake, an Eating Healthy Index (EHI) is developed following the Compilation of Food-Based Dietary Guidelines, published by the Chinese Nutrition Society, and the Healthy Eating Index-2010 components and standards for scoring from USDA. Using previously collected household survey data from 11 cities in China, an EHI is developed and calculated for each family to assess their nutrition intake. The score is calculated such that it increases if consumption is in a range representing healthy food intake. The relationship between the score, representing healthy nutrition intake, and household income, wife's education level, demographics, and household composition is explored using regression analysis. The results indicate that changes in family structure have significant effects on household nutrition intake.
Comparative Analysis of the Profit Risk in the Cultivation of Energy Beet in North Dakota
(North Dakota State University, 2016) Wijesinghe, Asanka Sanjeewa
Energy beet is a promising ethanol feedstock as it did not compromise the food security given it is not used as a food or feed. Although the technological and financial feasibility studies were available the risk of yield and profit aspect is not considered in the previous studies. Hence this study focuses on the cost of private risk bearing of a representative energy beet grower comparing to the other crops in North Dakota. The lowest risk premium is reported for the dry land production at the Langdon Research and Extension Centre (REC). Further in Langdon energy beet has the lowest risk premium (0.733USD/acre) comparing to the conventional crops. Hence a risk averse farmer can opt for energy beet in Langdon. The certainty equivalent is highest in Oakes irrigated experiment site followed by Carrington irrigated REC. Hence in irrigated sites energy beet can be a financially appealing crop for farmers.
Comparing Genetic Modification and Genetic Editing Technolgies: Minimal Required Acreage
(North Dakota State University, 2018) Neadeau, Joseph Francis
There are many technologies being developed for crop breeding. Two interesting technologies are genetic modification and genetic editing. Competitive pressures and changing consumer preferences are forcing organizations to invest heavily in these two technologies. Organizations must decide which traits they want to target and must commit significant time a money to the project. Traditionally, firms would decide which project to embark on if the project is net present value positive. Throughout the research and development process managers have flexibility to abandon the project once new information is received. That flexibility has value and real option analysis must be performed to value that flexibility. Once the value of a GM and GE project is determined, how might an organization decide which project to do? The concept of minimum required acreage (MRA) is developed in this study, allowing organizations to compare GM and GE technologies and decide which project to invest it.
Contribution of Public Investments and Innovations to Total Factor Productivity
(North Dakota State University, 2011) Glazyrina, Anna
This study examines the importance of public research and development (R&D) expenditures and innovations (prices) to U S agricultural productivity employing panel vector error correction econometric technique Specifically, time-series and panel unit root tests, panel cointegration procedures, panel causality tests, and vector error correction model are used in the analysis. Empirical application to U S state-level data for 1960-2004 suggests positive and statistically significant influence of both supply-side drivers, in the form of public R&D expenditures, and demand-side drivers, in the form of innovations (prices), on total factor productivity growth.
Costs and Risks of Testing and Blending for EAA in Soybeans
(North Dakota State University, 2015) Hertsgaard, David Jorgen
Soybean quality is typically measured by protein values. Essential Amino Acids (EAA) and Critical Amino Acid Value (CAAV) provide alternative measures of valuing soybeans. The following thesis analyzes the effects of testing soybeans for specific quality traits. A dual-marketing system is developed to analyze the costs and risks that may arise for grain handlers to segregate soybeans into high-quality and low-quality grain flows based on various importer purchasing strategies. A stochastic optimization model is used to determine the optimal testing locations within the dual-marketing system in order to minimize costs and risks to grain handlers. The model includes a blending component to determine the optimal blending from different locations with various quality distributions. The thesis provides a framework for grain handlers to make decisions based on the international importers’ various and numerous purchasing strategies.
Creating a Transportation Strategy for North Dakota Exporters
(North Dakota State University, 2010) Goldade, Ashley Lynn
North Dakota's transportation problem is centered on geography and volume. Being a land-locked state and not having an intermodal facility within the economic range of 150 miles from North Dakota production sites, transportation costs severely reduce shipper profit margins. Options available to containerized shippers are limited and expensive. The purpose of this research is to develop a model that evaluates tradeoffs regarding the development of intermodal shipping capabilities in North Dakota. The following are specific objectives to the research process: 1. Examine historical and current issues pertaining to intermodal transportation in North Dakota; 2. Develop an empirical model to evaluate intermodal pricing, revenues, and demand; 3. Conduct a sensitivity analysis on key random variables and interpret the results; 4. Analyze a variety of coalition cooperative efforts among key players and their effect on North Dakota' s transportation environment; 5. Describe a business model that could enable efficient intermodal transportation for North Dakota intermodal operators. Examining both the base case model and sensitivities applied to the base model allowed for examining today's transportation environment and its potential. The results are reported in chapter five and applied to game theory. Incorporating the results to game theory allows development of a business model focused on subsidizing network operators to cooperate and reposition containers to service North Dakota. A linear programming model was developed to analyze logistical costs and payoffs associated with varying game alternatives. Data collected was analyzed using GAMS software to determine the cost minimizing solutions for exporters across the eight regions of North Dakota. Base model results indicate hard IP producers in North Dakota realize minimized costs by draying containers to the intermodal terminals of Saskatoon, Winnipeg, or Minneapolis. Sensitivities were applied to answer "what if" questions related to North Dakota transportation. The first sensitivity test allows for cost of shipping by bulk to the point of export versus required loading of containers at the site of production. Results show that for the three regions encompassing the eastern border and southeast comer of North Dakota (ND4, ND7 and ND8), stuffing containers at the site of production remains the cost minimizing solution. Sensitivity accounts for hard IP shipments and includes the Minot intermodal terminal. Results show that North Dakota realizes the Minot terminal as an important shipping option. The expanded model and final sensitivity accounts for the 21 metric tons per TEU limitation placed on a containers load weight moving by rail. The addition of this parameter slightly changed model results to reflect a loss of market share to the Minot terminal. Sensitivities were then conducted on the expanded model. These sensitivities display a shift in shipping patterns due to the cost of repositioning empty containers, container stuffing fees, and Minot`s terminal handling fee.
Decision Tree and Real Options to Value Agtech Startup Growth
(North Dakota State University, 2022) Kallman, Dylan
Agtech startups face multiple uncertainties and have limited flexibility when it comes to growing their business. Companies that are growing ultimately need to take on new capital. This new capital can be from many different sources like strategic partners, investors, angels, VC, grants, and debt. What source is best for the entrepreneur and what will lead to the highest probability of success or the ideal outcome for shareholders can vary depending on the tradeoffs of each funding round. This paper has developed a model to analyze the returns and risks of alternative funding decisions for a prototypical ag-tech startup. By incorporating real options and integrating them within a decision tree, entrepreneurs will be able to see what growth strategy will lead to the most desired outcome. This paper uses one case study of an agtech startup and can be applied to multiple different startups in different sectors.
Determinants for Biofuel Policies in the Americas
(North Dakota State University, 2017) Gomez, Franco Weisser
The biofuels market has been increasingly important due to the benefits they provide to society by giving an alternative to fossil fuels. In the Americas, many countries are using biofuel-related policies to incentivize the production of biofuels. Different countries have different reasons to have biofuel policies, among them are variables related to country development, energy security, food security, oil price fluctuation, rural employment, and environmental issues. With the objective of finding determinants for biofuel policies among countries of the Americas, this study conducted a logit regression with panel data using a random effect model, with information from 27 countries of the Americas for a 25-year period, available in the World Bank, FAO, and EIA. Apart from the variables of oil reserves and rural employment, the results were consistent with our expectations. Variables related to food and energy security and country development were found to be highly significant.
Determinants of Bilateral Trade between the United States and Japan
(North Dakota State University, 2010) Walter, Jason Michael
The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of macroeconomic policy variables on bilateral trade between the United States and Japan. An auto-regressive distributed lag model is developed to estimate the effects of government economic policies on four commodity groups: agriculture; materials and chemicals; machinery and transport equipment; and manufactured goods. Results indicate that monetary policy significantly affects U. S. and Japanese imports of manufactured goods and transport equipment. The results also show that changes in government expenditure have a significant long-run effect on U.S. imports of manufactured goods and Japanese imports of materials and chemicals, while the long-run effects of income and exchange rates are significant for most commodity groups.
Determinants of Capital Structure in Agricultural Cooperatives in North Dakota
(North Dakota State University, 2013) Shang, Ran
This thesis analyzes how the optimal capital structure is affected by capital management and major sources of risk under the rule of maximizing the value of discounted cash flows to members. The analysis is done by using the present value of cash flow method. This research employs the panel procedure in Statistical Analysis System (SAS) to solve the firm value optimization problem. The data set includes financial reports from farm supply and grain marketing cooperatives in North Dakota. Empirical Results indicate that the optimal debt ratio is related to the lagged debt ratio, the proportion of assets held as liquid assets, the marginal profit of capital, the marginal adjustment cost of investments, the expected marginal adjustment cost of investments, macroeconomic risks, and the annual fraction of equity retired by the cooperative. All these factors impact members' investments to the cooperative and the cooperative's debt financing.
Determining and Evaluating Cost-Effective Food Safety Risk Reduction Strategies at Retail Meat Facilities
(North Dakota State University, 2006) Lehrke, Linda
In spite of the documented success of Pathogen Reduction and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (PR/HACCP) at the processing level, farm-level and retail-level application is optional. Several factors impact the gap of food safety regulations from farm to fork. This thesis focuses on the retail level. At the retail level, pathogen survival and the associated ability to cause further disease to humans even after being subjected to certain processing and packaging conditions have varying implications on the probability of sickness or death. This issue also arises over the fact that, sometimes, appropriate handling and processing instructions are not properly followed by consumers. The primary goals of the project are to develop an optimal food safety intervention strategy that incorporates risk, cost, and the value of pathogen reduction with alternative control mechanism. We wish to evaluate incentives for PR/HACCP-like planning and adherence to best management practices that promote safe food production. These incentives will be evaluated for the retail level. In addition, we will develop optimal intervention strategies for ready-to-eat meats and poultry products that incorporate risk assessment, cost of intervention, and the value of risk reduction of alternative strategies for the farm-to-table continuum. The model adopted in this study is an expansion of the stochastic optimization model developed by Nganje, Kaitibie, and Sorin (2005) to include the optimal intervention strategy at the retail ( consumer) level. These components are simulated with firm-level microbial data at the processing and retail level using stochastic optimizer software. Stochastic dominance was also used to compare across the optimal strategies and determine if there is one clear choice that is preferred. This allowed us incorporate risk preferences of firms. The scenario method was used to determine what factors would likely affect the adoption of PR/HACCP at the retail level. Finally, this thesis provides firms and policymakers a direction for future options concerning risk mitigation strategies.

Browse

Browsing Agribusiness & Applied Economics Masters Theses by browse.metadata.program "Agribusiness and Applied Economics"