Estimation of Increased Traffic on Highways in Montana and North Dakota due to Oil Development and Production
Dybing, Alan Gabriel
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Advances in oil extraction technology such as hydraulic fracturing have improved capabilities to extract and produce oil in the Bakken and Three Forks shale formations located in North Dakota, Montana, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. From 2004 to the present, there has been a significant increase in oil rigs and new oil wells in these areas, resulting in increased impacts to the local, county, state, and federal roadway network. Traditional methods of rural traffic forecasting using an established growth rate are not sufficient under the changing traffic levels. The goal of this research is to develop a traffic model that will improve segment specific traffic forecasts for use in highway design and planning. The traffic model will consist of five main components: 1) a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) network model of local, county, state and federal roads, 2) a truck costing model for use in estimating segment specific user costs, 3) a spatial oil location model to estimate future oil development areas, 4) a series of mathematical programming models to optimize a multi-region oil development area for nine individual input/output movements, and 5) an aggregation of multiple routings to segment specific traffic levels in a GIS network model.
Doctor of Philosophy