| dc.description.abstract | This dissertation uses Barndoff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) models to model swap, a type of financial derivative, and analyze geophysical data for estimation of major earthquakes. From empirical observation of the stock market activity and earthquake occurrence, we observe that the distributions have high kurtosis and right skewness. Consequently, such data cannot be captured by stochastic models driven by a Wiener process. Non-Gaussian processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type are one of the most significant candidates for being the building blocks of models of financial economics. These models offer the possibility of capturing important distributional deviations from Gaussianity and thus these are more practical models of dependence structures. Introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard these processes are not only convenient to model volatility in financial market, but have an independent interest for modeling stationary time series of various kinds. For the financial data we use BN-S models to price the arbitrage-free value of volatility, variance, covariance, and correlation swap. Such swaps are used in financial markets for volatility hedging and speculation. We use the S&P500 and NASDAQ index for parameter estimation and numerical analysis. We show that with this model the error estimation in fitting the delivery price is much less than the existing models with comparable parameters. For any given time interval, the earthquake magnitude data have three main properties: (1) magnitude is a non-negative stationary stochastic process; (2) for any finite interval of time there are only finite number of jumps; (3) the sample path of the magnitude of an earthquake consists of upward jumps (significant earthquake) and a gradual decrease (aftershocks). For such geophysical data we specifically use Gamma Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes driven by a Levy process to estimate a major earthquake in a certain region in California. Rigorous regression analysis is provided, and based on that, first-passage times are computed for different sets of data. Both applications demonstrate the significance of BN-S models to phenomena that follow non-Gaussian distributions. | en_US |
