| dc.description.abstract | No two species can indefinitely occupy the same ecological niche according to the competitive exclusion principle. When competing strains of the same pathogen invade a homogeneous population, the strain with the largest basic reproductive ratio R0 will force the other strains to extinction. However, over 51 pathogens are documented to have multiple strains [3] coexisting, contrary to the results from homogeneous models. In reality, the world is heterogeneous with the population varying in susceptibility. As such, the study of epidemiology, and hence the problem of pathogen coexistence should entail heterogeneity. Heterogeneous models tend to capture dynamics such as resistance to infection, giving more accurate results of the epidemics. This study will focus on the behavior of multi-pathogen heterogeneous models and will try to answer the question: what are the conditions on the model parameters that lead to pathogen coexistence? The goal is to understand the mechanisms in heterogeneous populations that mediate pathogen coexistence. Using the moment closure method, Fleming et. al. [22] used a two pathogen heterogeneous model (1.9) to show that pathogen coexistence was possible between strains of the baculovirus under certain conditions. In the first part of our study, we consider the same model using the hidden keystone variable (HKV) method. We show that under some conditions, the moment closure method and the HKV method give the same results. We also show that pathogen coexistence is possible for a much wider range of parameters, and give a complete analysis of the model (1.9), and give an explanation for the observed coexistence.
The host population (gypsy moth) considered in the model (1.9) has a year life span, and hence, demography was introduced to the model using a discrete time model (1.12). In the second part of our study, we will consider a multi-pathogen compartmental heterogeneous model (3.1) with continuous time demography. We show using a Lyapunov function that pathogen coexistence is possible between multiple strains of the same pathogen. We provide analytical and numerical evidence that multiple strains of the same pathogen can coexist in a heterogeneous population. | en_US |
