Scenario Development for Niger Environment Based on Risk and Effect Analysis With Drought, Drought Response, and Population Growth as Drivers
Mounkaila Siddo, Soumaila
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Niger is a landlock country located within the Sahara Desert and Sahel region. The region is subject to extreme climate conditions including heat waves, droughts and floods. Rapid population growth together with institutional incapacity and poor adaptive capacity can exacerbate the consequences of extreme climate. This paper develops four scenarios for the Niger environment based on risk and effect analysis with drought, drought response, and population growth as drivers. Scenario 1 (long-term drought, ineffective institution, rising population) would result in high risks of socioeconomic and environmental consequences as compared to scenarios 2 (long-term drought, effective institution, controlled population growth), 3 (highly variable climate, ineffective institution, rising population), and 4 (highly variable climate, effective institution, controlled population growth). However, with effective social and economic policies, these climatic and environmental conditions could be an opportunity for the country to develop and improve the living conditions of communities.